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dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xu
dc.contributor.authorHalder, Julia
dc.contributor.authorWhite, Rodger P.
dc.contributor.authorHughes, David
dc.contributor.authorYe, Z.
dc.contributor.authorWang, Changgui
dc.contributor.authorXu, R.
dc.contributor.authorGan, B.
dc.contributor.authorFitt, Bruce D.L.
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-04T12:00:27Z
dc.date.available2014-06-04T12:00:27Z
dc.date.issued2014-04-11
dc.identifier.citationZhang , X , Halder , J , White , R P , Hughes , D , Ye , Z , Wang , C , Xu , R , Gan , B & Fitt , B D L 2014 , ' Climate change increases risk of fusarium ear blight on wheat in central China ' , Annals of Applied Biology , vol. 164 , no. 3 , pp. 384-395 . https://doi.org/10.1111/aab.12107
dc.identifier.issn0003-4746
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 814344
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: ec273acf-5c2c-432f-9f7d-c2f8065b18e3
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 84899049561
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2299/13620
dc.descriptionThis is the peer reviewed version of the following article: X. Zhang, et al, 'Climate change increases risk of fusarium ear blight on wheat in central China', Annals of Applied Biology, Vol. 164 (3): 384-395, May 2014, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/aab.12107. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
dc.description.abstractTo estimate potential impact of climate change on wheat fusarium ear blight, simulated weather for the A1B climate change scenario was imported into a model for estimating fusarium ear blight in central China. In this work, a logistic weather-based regression model for estimating incidence of wheat fusarium ear blight in central China was developed, using up to 10 years (2001-2010) of disease, anthesis date and weather data available for 10 locations in Anhui and Hubei provinces. In the model, the weather variables were defined with respect to the anthesis date for each location in each year. The model suggested that incidence of fusarium ear blight is related to number of days of rainfall in a 30-day period after anthesis and that high temperatures before anthesis increase the incidence of disease. Validation was done to test whether this relationship was satisfied for another five locations in Anhui province with fusarium ear blight data for 4 to 5 years but no nearby weather data, using weather data generated by the regional climate modelling system PRECIS. How climate change may affect wheat anthesis date and fusarium ear blight in central China was investigated for period 2020-2050 using wheat growth model Sirius and climate data generated by PRECIS. The projection suggested that wheat anthesis dates will generally be earlier and fusarium ear blight incidence will increase substantially for most locations.en
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofAnnals of Applied Biology
dc.rightsEmbargoed
dc.subjectclimate change impacts
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectlogistic regression model
dc.subjectsustainable agriculture
dc.subjectweather-based disease forecasting
dc.subjectwheat fusarium ear blight
dc.titleClimate change increases risk of fusarium ear blight on wheat in central Chinaen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Human and Environmental Sciences
dc.contributor.institutionHealth & Human Sciences Research Institute
dc.contributor.institutionGeography, Environment and Agriculture
dc.contributor.institutionAgriculture
dc.contributor.institutionHealth Services and Medicine
dc.contributor.institutionCrop and Environmental Protection
dc.contributor.institutionAgriculture, Veterinary and Food Sciences
dc.contributor.institutionSchool of Life and Medical Sciences
dc.contributor.institutionWeight and Obesity Research Group
dc.description.statusPeer reviewed
dc.date.embargoedUntil2015-02-21
dc.relation.schoolSchool of Life and Medical Sciences
dc.description.versiontypeFinal Accepted Version
dcterms.dateAccepted2014-04-11
rioxxterms.versionAM
rioxxterms.versionofrecordhttps://doi.org/10.1111/aab.12107
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2015-02-21
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review
herts.preservation.rarelyaccessedtrue
herts.date.embargo2015-02-21
herts.rights.accesstypeEmbargoed


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