The Role of Forwarding-Looking Price Expectations Data published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) in explaining and forecasting U.K. house prices.
Gareth Thomas, David
The objective of this paper is to make use of the forward-looking price expectations data published by the RICS to explain and forecast U.K. house prices, three-months ahead. The Nationwide index is used to test the performance of the RICS Survey based on the process of bounded rationality. An S-shaped logistic effect is shown to fit the data, assumed to be account of a diffusion path of expectations from surveyors to other agents.