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dc.contributor.authorJaggard, Keith W.
dc.contributor.authorQi, Aiming
dc.contributor.authorOber, Eric S.
dc.date.accessioned2013-09-05T08:00:06Z
dc.date.available2013-09-05T08:00:06Z
dc.date.issued2010-09-27
dc.identifier.citationJaggard , K W , Qi , A & Ober , E S 2010 , ' Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050 ' , Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences , vol. 365 , no. 1554 , pp. 2835-2851 . https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0153
dc.identifier.issn0962-8436
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 1995913
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: d97eca95-edbf-4c3e-b9d1-d7ecdfa517cd
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000281922800007
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 77957317089
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2299/11543
dc.descriptionCreative Commons license CC-BY 3.0
dc.description.abstractBy 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO2 concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 2 degrees C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world? CO2 enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more. Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO2-enriched environment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soilborne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most efficient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improvements in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations.en
dc.format.extent17
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofPhilosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences
dc.rightsOpen
dc.subjectCARBON-DIOXIDE ENRICHMENT
dc.subjectFOOD-PRODUCTION
dc.subjectAIR CO2 ENRICHMENT
dc.subjectSOLANUM-TUBEROSUM L.
dc.subjectplant breeding
dc.subjectWHEAT YIELD
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectSUGAR-BEET
dc.subjectcarbon dioxide
dc.subjectozone
dc.subjectGROWTH
dc.subjectpest and disease control
dc.subjectCLIMATE-CHANGE
dc.subjectyield gap
dc.subjectFUTURE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectELEVATED CO2
dc.titlePossible changes to arable crop yields by 2050en
dc.contributor.institutionSchool of Life and Medical Sciences
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Human and Environmental Sciences
dc.contributor.institutionHealth & Human Sciences Research Institute
dc.contributor.institutionAgriculture, Veterinary and Food Sciences
dc.contributor.institutionGeography, Environment and Agriculture
dc.contributor.institutionCrop and Environmental Protection
dc.description.statusPeer reviewed
dc.relation.schoolSchool of Life and Medical Sciences
dc.description.versiontypeFinal Published version
dcterms.dateAccepted2010-09-27
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.versionofrecordhttps://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0153
rioxxterms.typeOther
herts.preservation.rarelyaccessedtrue
herts.rights.accesstypeOpen


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