Application of Geographic Information Systems to Identify the Oversummering Regions of Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici in China
Fitt, Bruce D.L.
Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici, the pathogen that causes wheat powdery mildew, can oversummer as mycelia or conidia on leaves of volunteer wheat plants in cool mountainous areas in China. In this study, the regions in China where B. graminis f. sp. tritici can oversummer were identified on the basis of the probability that temperature remains below a critical temperature that is lethal to B. graminis f. sp. tritici. Two methods, one describing the relationship between the average temperature (20 to 26°C) in a given continuous 10-day period and wheat powdery mildew severity, the other describing the relationship between the average temperature (26 to 33°C) and the number of lethal days on powdery mildew development, were used to calculate the oversummering probability using weather data for 743 sites across China. Spatial interpolation based on the ordinary kriging method was conducted for the regions without observation. Oversummering probability values were similar for most locations estimated between the two methods. The B. graminis f. sp. tritici oversummering regions in China were identified to be in mountainous or high-elevation areas, including most regions of Yunnan, west and central areas of Guizhou, south and northwest Sichuan, south and east Gansu, south Ningxia, north and west Shaanxi, central-north Shanxi, west Henan and Hubei, and some regions in Qinghai, Tibet, and Xinjiang. When the oversummering sites from this study were compared with observed survey data for some of these sites, about 90% of sites where B. graminis f. sp. tritici oversummering was observed had been found suitable by both methods. The coincidence frequency and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for model 2 were higher, albeit only slightly, than those for model 1. Thus, both methods may be used to assist in disease management and further investigation on pathogen oversummering