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dc.contributor.authorTuomi, Mikko
dc.contributor.authorJones, H.R.A.
dc.date.accessioned2017-03-02T16:48:14Z
dc.date.available2017-03-02T16:48:14Z
dc.date.issued2012-08-12
dc.identifier.citationTuomi , M & Jones , H R A 2012 , ' Probabilities of exoplanet signals from posterior samplings ' , Astronomy & Astrophysics , vol. 544 , 116 . https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201118114
dc.identifier.issn0004-6361
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 779598
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 0f1005be-b26d-40aa-af59-a63493ebf829
dc.identifier.otherArXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.5969v3
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000308290100116
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 84865016052
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2299/17662
dc.descriptionM. Tuomi and H. R. A. Jones, 'Probabilities of exoplanet signals from posterior samplings', Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol 544, A166, (2012), the version of record is available online at DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201118114. © 2012 ESO
dc.description.abstractEstimating the marginal likelihoods is an essential feature of model selection in the Bayesian context. It is especially crucial to have good estimates when assessing the number of planets orbiting stars when the models explain the noisy data with different numbers of Keplerian signals. We introduce a simple method for approximating the marginal likelihoods in practice when a statistically representative sample from the parameter posterior density is available. We use our truncated posterior mixture estimate to receive accurate model probabilities for models with differing number of Keplerian signals in radial velocity data. We test this estimate in simple scenarios to assess its accuracy and rate of convergence in practice when the corresponding estimates calculated using deviance information criterion can be applied to receive trustworthy results for reliable comparison. As a test case, we determine the posterior probability of a planet orbiting HD 3651 given Lick and Keck radial velocity data. The posterior mixture estimate appears to be a simple and an accurate way of calculating marginal integrals from posterior samples. We show, that it can be used to estimate the marginal integrals reliably in practice, given a suitable selection of parameter \lambda, that controls its accuracy and convergence rate. It is also more accurate than the one block Metropolis-Hastings estimate and can be used in any application because it is not based on assumptions on the nature of the posterior density nor the amount of data or parameters in the statistical model.en
dc.format.extent7
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofAstronomy & Astrophysics
dc.subjecttechniques: radial velocities
dc.subjectstars: individual: HD 3651
dc.subjectmethods: statistical
dc.subjectmethods: numerical
dc.subjectCOROT SPACE MISSION
dc.subjectEXTRASOLAR PLANETS
dc.subjectRADIAL-VELOCITIES
dc.subjectTRANSITING EXOPLANETS
dc.subjectBAYESIAN-ANALYSIS
dc.subjectGLIESE 581
dc.subjectMASS
dc.subjectLIKELIHOOD
dc.subjectCANDIDATE
dc.subjectSYSTEM
dc.titleProbabilities of exoplanet signals from posterior samplingsen
dc.contributor.institutionSchool of Physics, Astronomy and Mathematics
dc.contributor.institutionScience & Technology Research Institute
dc.contributor.institutionCentre for Astrophysics Research
dc.description.statusPeer reviewed
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.versionofrecordhttps://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201118114
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review
herts.preservation.rarelyaccessedtrue


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