dc.contributor.author | tiwari, p.r. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-08-08T12:59:32Z | |
dc.date.available | 2017-08-08T12:59:32Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2016-04-01 | |
dc.identifier.citation | tiwari , P R 2016 , ' Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India ' , Theoretical and Applied Climatology , vol. 124 , no. 1-2 , pp. 15–29 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1397-y | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1434-4483 | |
dc.identifier.other | ORCID: /0000-0002-7580-0446/work/62752084 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2299/19182 | |
dc.description | This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Tiwari, P.R., Kar, S.C., Mohanty, U.C. et al. Theor Appl Climatol (2016) 124: 15. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1397-y. © Springer-Verlag Wien 2015. | |
dc.description.abstract | The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December–January– February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982–2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction. | en |
dc.format.extent | 15 | |
dc.format.extent | 994911 | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.relation.ispartof | Theoretical and Applied Climatology | |
dc.subject | North India | |
dc.subject | wintertime temperature | |
dc.subject | predictability | |
dc.subject | general circulation models | |
dc.title | Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India | en |
dc.contributor.institution | Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Physics Research | |
dc.description.status | Peer reviewed | |
dc.date.embargoedUntil | 2016-02-15 | |
rioxxterms.versionofrecord | 10.1007/s00704-015-1397-y | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | |
herts.preservation.rarelyaccessed | true | |