Creatinine reduction ratio : a useful marker to identify medium and high-risk renal transplants

INTRODUCTION: Delayed graft function (DGF) has a major impact on long-term renal transplant survival. However, it is a diagnosis made retrospectively with little opportunity to modify treatment protocols. A classification based on creatinine reduction ratio between days 1 and 2 (CRR2) suggests that patients with CRR2 less than or equal to 30% (nondialysis requiring DGF [ND-DGF]) have similar outcomes to those with dialysis-requiring delayed graft function (D-DGF). We retrospectively applied this definition in our cohort of patients to examine outcomes. METHODS: We studied the association between CRR2 and graft outcomes in all 367 patients transplanted between 1996 and 2004 at our center. Patients were divided into the following three groups: IGF (immediate graft function; CRR2 >30%), D-DGF, and ND-DGF. Mean follow-up was 4.2 years. RESULTS: IGF accounted for 36% of patients, D-DGF for 22%, and ND-DGF for 42%. CRR2 was inversely correlated with serum creatinine on days 7, 30, 90, and 365 (r ranging from -0.65 to -0.22, P<0.001). Graft survival at 5 years was 98% (IGF), 74% (D-DGF), and 89% (ND-DGF). There was a significant difference in graft survival between IGF and D-DGF (P<0.001) and IGF and ND-DGF (P=0.005). In a multivariate analysis adjusting for recipient age and sex, donor age and sex, and human leukocyte antigen mismatch, graft failure was 2.4 times more likely to occur in patients with D-DGF than those with ND-DGF(P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows CRR2 influences long-term graft outcomes. Unlike the original description, patients with ND-DGF carry an intermediate risk and perhaps should be considered on day 2 for alternative treatment protocols.