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dc.contributor.authorQi, Aiming
dc.contributor.authorHolland, Robert A.
dc.contributor.authorTaylor, Gail
dc.contributor.authorRichter, Goetz M.
dc.date.accessioned2018-08-16T00:16:39Z
dc.date.available2018-08-16T00:16:39Z
dc.date.issued2018-09-01
dc.identifier.citationQi , A , Holland , R A , Taylor , G & Richter , G M 2018 , ' Grassland futures in Great Britain – Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities ' , Science of the Total Environment , vol. 634 , pp. 1108-1118 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.395
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2299/20436
dc.descriptionThis is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
dc.description.abstractTo optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961–1990) at 1 km2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO2] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8 t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8 t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72 million tonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21 ∗ 106 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services.en
dc.format.extent11
dc.format.extent2270646
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofScience of the Total Environment
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectEcosystem service
dc.subjectGrassland systems
dc.subjectLand use change
dc.subjectTechnology progress
dc.subjectYield gap
dc.subjectEnvironmental Engineering
dc.subjectEnvironmental Chemistry
dc.subjectWaste Management and Disposal
dc.subjectPollution
dc.titleGrassland futures in Great Britain – Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunitiesen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of Hertfordshire
dc.description.statusPeer reviewed
dc.identifier.urlhttp://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85045209636&partnerID=8YFLogxK
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.395
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review
herts.preservation.rarelyaccessedtrue


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