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        Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

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        sustainability_04_00740.pdf (PDF, 480Kb)
        Author
        Hunt, Dexter V. L.
        Lombardi, D. Rachel
        Atkinson, Stuart
        Barber, Austin R. G.
        Barnes, Matthew
        Boyko, Christopher T.
        Brown, Julie
        Bryson, John
        Butler, David
        Caputo, Silvio
        Jankovic, Ljubomir
        al., et
        Attention
        2299/20678
        Abstract
        Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.
        Publication date
        2012-04-20
        Published in
        Sustainability
        Published version
        https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740
        Other links
        http://hdl.handle.net/2299/20678
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