Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorGue, Ying X.
dc.contributor.authorTennyson, Maria
dc.contributor.authorGao, Jovia
dc.contributor.authorRen, Shuhui
dc.contributor.authorKanji, Rahim
dc.contributor.authorGorog, Diana A.
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-12T00:10:46Z
dc.date.available2021-02-12T00:10:46Z
dc.date.issued2020-12-07
dc.identifier.citationGue , Y X , Tennyson , M , Gao , J , Ren , S , Kanji , R & Gorog , D A 2020 , ' Development of a novel risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 ' , Scientific Reports , vol. 10 , no. 1 , 21379 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-78505-w
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 24591627
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 14ff01f4-e3f6-4cad-ac11-3c9124a95c81
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85097267588
dc.identifier.otherPubMed: 33288840
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2299/23896
dc.descriptionPublisher Copyright: © 2020, The Author(s).
dc.description.abstractPatients hospitalised with COVID-19 have a high mortality. Identification of patients at increased risk of adverse outcome would be important, to allow closer observation and earlier medical intervention for those at risk, and to objectively guide prognosis for friends and family of affected individuals. We conducted a single-centre retrospective cohort study in all-comers with COVID-19 admitted to a large general hospital in the United Kingdom. Clinical characteristics and features on admission, including observations, haematological and biochemical characteristics, were used to develop a score to predict 30-day mortality, using multivariable logistic regression. We identified 316 patients, of whom 46% died within 30-days. We developed a mortality score incorporating age, sex, platelet count, international normalised ratio, and observations on admission including the Glasgow Coma Scale, respiratory rate and blood pressure. The score was highly predictive of 30-day mortality with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.7933 (95% CI 0.745–0.841). The optimal cut-point was a score ≥ 4, which had a sensitivity of 78.36% and a specificity of 67.59%. Patients with a score ≥ 4 had an odds ratio of 7.6 for 30-day mortality compared to those with a score < 4 (95% CI 4.56–12.49, p < 0.001). This simple, easy-to-use risk score calculator for patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 is a strong predictor of 30-day mortality. Whilst requiring further external validation, it has the potential to guide prognosis for family and friends, and to identify patients at increased risk, who may require closer observation and more intensive early intervention.en
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofScientific Reports
dc.subjectGeneral
dc.titleDevelopment of a novel risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19en
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Clinical, Pharmaceutical and Biological Science
dc.contributor.institutionBasic and Clinical Science Unit
dc.contributor.institutionCentre for Health Services and Clinical Research
dc.contributor.institutionSchool of Life and Medical Sciences
dc.description.statusPeer reviewed
dc.identifier.urlhttp://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85097267588&partnerID=8YFLogxK
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.versionofrecordhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-78505-w
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review
herts.preservation.rarelyaccessedtrue


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record