Changes in extreme events over Asia for present and future climate conditions based on a modelling analysis of atmospheric circulation anomalies

Abstract

Synoptic weather and larger scale circulation patterns are closely coupled and have a major influence on regional weather and extreme events. This study examines the role of regional circulations on meteorology and extreme events for the present and future years over Asia with the WRF model driven by HadGEM2 global model boundary conditions that includes RCP4.5 scenarios based bicentennial transient simulation. The regional scale analysis was based on boundary conditions derived from 40 years of global model outputs spanning periods of 1995–2005, 2015–2025, 2025–2035 and 2045–2055. For brevity these periods are labelled as 2000, 2020, 2030, 2050 and ‘represent’ decadal periods centred around the named years. Model results were compared and validated (using a number of skill metrics) against observations for the present period showing that the model is able to delineate the observed features within 95% confidence level compared to the annual mean. To characterise and quantify the changes in the circulation patterns, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based analysis was conducted. Results indicate that wintertime minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 3–4 °C over Asia by 2050 compared to reference period of 2000. Furthermore, anti-cyclonic activity associated with low PV anomalies and high positive temperature anomalies may be a key driver that influences the increase in frequency and duration of heat waves and droughts over SA, SEA, EA and NA regions of Asia. Overall, the modelling results suggest that regional meteorology and circulation patterns may significantly influence extremes over Asia in the future. Such impacts will have major implications for weather patterns as well as for air pollution over the region both of which will require policy responses to adjust to a changing regional climate.