A Novel Ensemble Machine Learning and an Evolutionary Algorithm in Modeling the COVID-19 Epidemic and Optimizing Government Policies

Abstract

The spread of the COVID-19 disease has prompted a need for immediate reaction by governments to curb the pandemic. Many countries have adopted different policies and studies are performed to understand the effect of each of the policies on the growth rate of the infected cases. In this article, the data about the policies taken by all countries at each date, and the effect of the policies on the growth rate of the pandemic are used to build a model of the pandemic's behavior. The model takes as input a set of policies and predicts the growth rate of the pandemic. Then, a population-based multi objective optimization algorithm is developed, which uses the model to search through the policy space and finds a set of policies that minimize the cost induced to the society due to the policies and the growth rate of the pandemic. Because of the complexity of the modeling problem and the uncertainty in measuring the growth rate of the pandemic via the models, an ensemble learning algorithm is proposed in this article to improve the performance of individual learning algorithms. The ensemble consists of ten learning algorithms and a metamodel algorithm that is built to predict the accuracy of each learning algorithm for a given data record. The metamodel is a set of support vector machine (SVM) algorithms that is used in the aggregation phase of the ensemble algorithm. Because there is uncertainty in measuring the growth rate via the models, a landscape smoothing operator is proposed in the optimization process, which aims at reducing uncertainty. The algorithm is tested on open access data online and experiments on the ensemble learning and the policy optimization algorithms are performed.