Econometric Analysis of Money, Price Expectations and Debt in the U.S.A. Economy

Abstract

This paper presents the empirical results of an econometric investigation of the demand and supply of real money with Livingston‟s price expectations and real Federal debt in the U.S.A. economy as a Vector Auto-Regressions System with subsequent „Hendryfication‟. This allows the study to focus on a partial equilibrium model of the money market that pinpoints the crucial variables of fiscal and monetary policies, specifically the debt (wealth creating instruments), the real monetary base, the relevant rates of interest as well as real income and expectations. The long and short run effects of these variables over the quarterly data, spanning from 1960 to 2007, are analysed. Clearly, this is a well-researched field, where others have published excellent work, although this investigation differs in its choice of variables, especially with the inclusion of price expectations to maintain stability of the system in real terms over the sample period. The idea is to explain the dynamics and mechanisms of adjustment, generally left unexplained by economic theory.