Russian Export Specialisation Amid Increasing Sanctions: Evidence with an Analysis of RCA, RSCA, and TBI

This research aims to examine changes in the export specialisation of Russian goods amid sanctions between 2019 to 2022, and trends from 2003 to 2022. As a quantitative research, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), and Trade Balance Index (TBI) have been employed for the analysis. The results reveal that there have been significant changes in export specialisation in Russia that likely indicate de-industrialisation in industries such as locomotives and aircraft. Furthermore, it is found that Russian staples including mineral fuel, non-fuel minerals (e.g., nickel) and fertilisers are considered a strong comparative advantage. However, both mineral fuel and nickel indicate weak comparative advantages amid sanctions. Based on the results, discussions and policy recommendations are drawn for policymakers of the European Union and Russia to propose improved international business or economic positions and peaceful ways.