Dynamic complexity and institutional decision-making in UK higher education: a multi-method systemic assessment

UK higher education institutions operate under performance, resource, and stakeholder pressures whose effects are mediated by feedback, delays and competing constraints. This study examines how such dynamic complexity influences learning and teaching decision-making and evaluates a multimethod systems design combining a Systemigram, interview-informed causal loop diagram (CLD), Viable System Model (VSM) and Ideal Final Result (IFR). The CLD was developed from two rounds of semi-structured interviews comprising 24 interviews, analysed through thematic and open coding and subsequently validated with participants. The analysis identifies reinforcing mechanisms linking learning and teaching quality, National Student Survey (NSS)/Postgraduate Taught Experience Survey (PTES) outcomes, institutional attractiveness, enrolment, revenue and reinvestment, alongside balancing constraints through which enrolment increases staff–student ratios and marking pressure, reducing teaching and assessment/feedback quality. The VSM identifies coordination, resource control and intelligence requirements, while the IFR translates the identified tensions into design principles. The methods help explain why apparently rational local interventions can generate delayed or counterproductive effects and identify workload, staffing capacity, leading indicator and coordination interventions for UK Higher Education Institutions (HEIs).