| dc.description.abstract | BACKGROUND
Novel or new psychoactive substances (NPS), also known as designer drugs and research chemicals,
represent a relatively recent phenomenon which can be traced back to the last decade or even earlier.
The growth of this phenomenon and its electronic trade (e-trade) has been logarithmic and alarming;
its aftermaths are not limited to; the economy, individual and public health, or illicit drug trade. The
discipline of NPS has been extensively studied since 2010. However, there are still deficits in; data
from the Middle East and the developing world including Arabic countries (1), application of data
science and inferential hypothesis testing (2), implementation of the principles and theories of social
science (3), utilization of experimental designs including randomised controlled trials (RCT) and quasiexperimental
studies (4), and ultimately the enactment of real-time web analysis and the realization
of tools of knowledge discovery in databases (5).
AIM AND OBJECTIVES
This study will implement an innovative research approach by combining observational analyses and
data science; the aim is to provide generalizable (inferential) data in relation to NPS e-commerce
activities on both divisions of the web, surface and deep. The pinnacle objective is to; assess the
proportional magnitude of NPS e-commerce activity in the Middle East (1), provide a thorough analysis
of the e-vendors on the darknet, both globally and regionally (Middle East) (2), correlate change in
trends of e-commerce with time (3), provide recommendations for future studies in relation to the ecommerce
activity in the Middle East (4), and to discuss the colossal potential of data mining
technologies (5).
MATERIALS AND METHODS
This dissertation embodies the integrative and combinatorial approach towards the investigation of
the e-trade (e-commerce) of NPS; it is made of integrated studies allocated into eleven results
chapters. The utilised investigative tools represent a mixed-breed of observational web analytics
including; literature review (1), cross-sectional studies and surveys (2, 3), internet snapshots (4),
retrospective analyses (5), and critical appraisal (6). These analyses took place in both appendices of
the web (surface web and the anonymous deep web); the analyses specifically involved; Google
Trends database (1), literature databases (2), drug fora (3), social communication e-media (3), news
and media networks (4), Grams search engine of the deep web (5), the darknet and its e-marketplace
(6), Alphabay, Agora, Valhalla, Hansa, other dedicated e-markets for NPS e-trade (7). Additional
extrapolations were concluded via the use of surveys and e-surveys in a population of medical
students from Iraq. The potentials for knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) were also discussed in
all chapters. Each chapter was thoroughly investigated via; data science tools (I), inferential statistics
and hypothesis testing (II). The latter was dependent on using the Microsoft Excel 2016, the Statistical
Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), and some online tools of data science.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
A systematic review of approximately 600 PubMed-indexed articles of NPS literature showed;
attempts of NPS research started to evolve after 2010, almost one-third of the research output (36%)
was of relevance to toxicology and analytic chemistry, while reviews and cross-sectional studies were
less common (15%, 18%). The analysis of the individual basis of power showed that NPS researchers,
legislators, and policymakers are lagging behind, whereas terrorist possesses the highest possible
power. Power scores of e-vendors scored highest in the UK, US, and eastern Europe, while being
almost absent in the Middle East.
The complimentary usage of PubMed, drug fora, and Google Trends was successful in extrapolating
the most trending and high-risk NPS; the contribution from the Middle East to incidents of
intoxications and fatalities was absent except for Israel. Deep web analysis, including the darknet emarketplace,
has shown that the contribution of the Middle East never exceeded 7% of the total etrade,
data were limited to; Iran, Israel, Turkey, Afghanistan, Oman, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi
Arabia. Other Arabic countries included; Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria. It was interesting to observe
the e-vendors of NPS operating in the Middle East were highly involved in e-trade activities in other
nations, primarily; the UK, Western Europe and Scandinavia, US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
Surveys and internet snapshots unveiled the lack of awareness and very low prevalence of (ab)use of
NPS within the selected Iraqi population.
Captagon was highly prevalent in the Middle East, unlike NBOMe and octodrine. In summary, the
contribution from the Middle East was microscopic when compared to the developed world; it did not
exceed 7% of the entire NPS phenomenon e-trade. Similarly, the NPS research in the region of the
Middle East can be described to be in its infancy. The overall level-of-evidence of this dissertation is
assumed to be of level-2b according to the classification system imposed by the Oxford Center for
Evidence-Based Medicine (2009).
CONCLUSION
The growth of the NPS phenomenon, including the e-commerce and its links to terrorism, are reaching
unprecedented levels. Unless some reasonable efforts and ingenious upgrades of the current research
methodologies, the NPS trade and e-trade will continue to prevail rendering all its counter-attempts
fade into dust; these attempts are not only limited to NPS research but also into; legislative actions,
policy planning, and counter-terrorism. Upgrades should affect these front lines; increasing the quality
and quantity of studies in developed countries including Middle Eastern and Arabic countries (1),
incorporation of efficient use of data science and advanced web analytics (2), compulsory training of
data science, biostatistics, and basic neuroscience for all NPS researchers, chemists, and toxicologists
(3), validation and incorporation of data mining and real-time analyses (4), inclusion of the rarely-used
experimental studies including RCTs, pragmatic RCTs, and animal modelling (5), enhancement and
potentiation of internet snapshot techniques (6), and full exploitation of trends databases of the
surface web (7). Perhaps, the integration of real-time data mining and data crunching, and inferential
data science technique will represent the climax armament to antagonise the alarming e-trade. | en_US |
